Home Markets Analysis: Early or late cycle? Fast-running bull market unnerves investors

Analysis: Early or late cycle? Fast-running bull market unnerves investors

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A trader looks at a screen that charts the S&P 500 on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., April 27, 2017. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Will history’s longest-ever bull market be followed by one of the shortest?

It’s been just over a year since a new business cycle kicked off, yet the speed at which it’s progressing is unnerving some investors who fear the swift-running bull market is headed for an abrupt end over the coming year.

Some, pointing to higher-than-usual equity returns and valuations for this stage of the cycle, are even asking whether this could just be the same, decade-old bull market which survived last year’s COVID-19 blow.

Either scenario isn’t great for markets. The accepted wisdom is that bull markets don’t die of old age. They meet their end at the hands of central banks, typically when valuations and leverage get too exuberant.

So if COVID-19 didn’t kill the bull, the Federal Reserve’s upcoming stimulus…

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