NEW YORK, Nov. 3, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The impact of the US elections on commodities remains uncertain, in that a re-election of President Donald Trump would likely mean a continuation of easing regulatory constraints on the oil and natural gas industries, while a Joe Biden election victory would most likely increase regulation and encourage growth in renewables, according to the Platts Analytics US Election analysis released by S&P Global Platts ("Platts"), the leading independent provider of information and benchmark prices for the commodities and energy markets.
However, in the short term it will be the likelihood of stronger economic growth and a more positive outlook on global trade under a Biden administration that could lend support to energy prices. But under such a scenario, offsets could include the potential return to the negotiating table on the Iranian nuclear deal and growing humanitarian issues in Venezuela, with any early return of oil supply from either country weighing heavily on energy prices.
An Election win by either candidate points to large rollback of agriculture sector subsidies.
Political polls overwhelmingly tilt towards a Biden victory, along with Republicans losing their majority in the US Senate. In the US House of Representatives, the Democrats are expected to extend their majority by perhaps six seats. Despite the overwhelming poll data, S&P Global Platts Analytics still believes there remains a large degree of uncertainty regarding the outcomes. Below find a brief look at some of the implications of the outcome of the US Elections:
If a Trump Re-Election:
Under Trump we can expect a continuation of Trump's trademark style of one-off transactional diplomacy, treating allies and adversaries no differently, while Biden would look to heal relationships and strengthen trade partnerships. Significant progress has been made in the Phase 1 China-US trade deal despite the 2020 commitments not being met (with agricultural goods ramping up) in part amidst weaker prices. The shortfalls in purchases are expected to be rolled over into the 2021 commitments supporting energy and agricultural commodities.
Under Trump energy policy is likely to remain supportive of the energy industry, encouraging US exports and loosening regulatory constraints, while Biden will pursue Obama-era policies, with tighter regulation on pipeline, flaring and fracking especially on federal lands.
If a Biden Victory:
Under Biden we expect faster economic growth, higher employment, acceleration of inflation, a weaker dollar, and smaller deficit supported by the assumption of a greater degree of stimulus to support growth, less restrictive assumptions on immigration, stronger healthcare programs, and support for a higher minimum wage.
Tax policies and perceived subsidies to the energy industry could come under renewed scrutiny under Biden. Provisions such as the master limited partnership structure, depletion allowance, intangible drilling costs, and section 199 domestic manufacturing deduction could be reduced. Such actions, along with still weak energy prices for both oil, gas, and coal, would further hinder the recovery path for the energy industry.
Under Biden the renewables industry will see a more favorable environment and a return to the Paris Accord commitments, which will accelerate investment in solar wind and storage, impacting fossil fuel demand in thermal power generation.
SEE SIDE-BY-SIDE OUTLOOK COMPARISONS
US Foreign Policy – Energy impact
Likely to focus immediately on repairing relationships with allies and bringing them onboard on various foreign policy initiatives including Iran, Venezuela, China, and Russia. A return of Iranian barrels is more likely under Biden, although we do not expect a meaningful return before 2022.
Exports of LNG and crude will be pushed as a trade balancing mechanism in Asia and Europe.
Multilateral approach to trade and other global partnerships, with less friction with a host of key trading partners (Latin America, EU, China).
Subsidies and tax changes will be deployed to promote fossil fuel development; and
Regulatory focus will tighten and favor oil and gas majors over independents, given additional costs involved in limiting flaring and venting from both fields and pipelines.
Remaining federal incentives to promote renewables will be cut back or eliminated altogether.
Policy will shift towards additional deployments of renewables and batteries at the expense of fossil fuels in power generation.
The near-term impact on US oil and gas supply is largely limited regardless of election result, as significant permits and drilled but uncompleted wells, or DUCs, provide a cushion in the event of a ban on new federal drilling permits.
Drilling on federals lands will be reviewed along with current oil and gas tax provisions, with rollback of Obama-era methane regulations, or even the implementation of tighter regulations on existing, not just new, (stripper) wells.
A second Trump administration is likely to maintain the status quo in terms of oil and gas tax provisions, so as not to create further headwinds for an industry already struggling from weak commodity prices.
Near-term impact on US oil and gas supply is largely limited regardless of the election result, as significant permits and DUCs provide a cushion in the event of a ban on new federal drilling permits.
A return of Iranian barrels is not out of the realm of possibility but risks of missteps and tensions in the Middle East are heightened.
Increased underlying cost of US natural gas (and therefore raising the cost of US LNG) through a number of likely executive orders, which would be aimed at lowering methane emissions and banning new oil and gas leasing on public lands.
Reduced risks that federal regulations will start to assess full life-cycle costs, which would include upstream carbon emissions and methane leakage associated with new LNG export projects.
Risk of additional trade tensions with key Asian demand countries, namely China, which could impact ethane, LPG, ethylene and polyethylene trade.
Midstream sector investment moves toward CO2, H2, but construction would likely occur after the upcoming term. US ethylene cracker investment Wave 3 would be at risk.
Wave 3 of US ethylene units would likely proceed. Thus, anticipate no change to potential relaxation of regulations on single-use plastics and recycling.
Single-use plastics and recycling would move to the fore, with potential for more regulations on single-use plastics and encouraging of recycling.
Renewables & Climate
The opportunity to defend reversals of Obama policies in court.
Re-engagement with Paris Climate Accord. However, comprehensive climate proposals (including targeting decarbonized power sector by 2035) depend on US Senate makeup and the relative importance of other (non-energy) policy priorities.
Likely means imposed Section 201 tariffs on imported solar module tariffs in 2018, as well as work to extend and even increase the magnitude of those tariffs.
Work to reverse the Trump administration's rollback of Obama-era regulations (Congressional Review Act could give quick wins). The EPA would approve California waiver, allowing it to set tougher-than-federal clean air standards -- which other states can then follow to set vehicle policy.
Continued slow-walking of offshore wind permitting; potential use of CFIUS rules to block offshore wind deals involving foreign state-owned companies (Equinor, Orsted, etc.)
The extension of Wind Production Tax Credit and Solar Investment Tax Credit, continued support of CCUS-- which have historically been bipartisan.
About S&P Global PlattsAt S&P Global Platts, we provide the insights; you make better informed trading and business decisions with confidence. We're the leading independent provider of information and benchmark prices for the commodities and energy markets. Customers in over 150 countries look to our expertise in news, pricing and analytics to deliver greater transparency and efficiency to markets. S&P Global Platts coverage includes oil and gas, power, petrochemicals, metals, agriculture and shipping.
S&P Global Platts is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI), which provides essential intelligence for companies, governments and individuals to make decisions with confidence. For more information, visit https://spglobal.com/platts.
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SOURCE S&P Global Platts
Dover Motorsports, Inc. (NYSE: DVD) will report its earnings for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2020 on the morning of Thursday, January 28, 2021. Commentary from the Company’s executive officers relative to the earnings release will be available on the Company’s website Thursday morning beginning at 9:00 a.m. ET.
To listen to the commentary, please log on to www.dovermotorsports.com, select the investor relations tab and select DVD 4Q20 Earnings Announcement.
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View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210121005855/en/
Shannon HennigShannon Hennig is a small business owner and health and wellness marketing expert.
Over the summer, she began experiencing serious fatigue, stiffness in her feet and legs, and chest pain and difficulty breathing. She tested negative for COVID-19, and was turned away at the ER after being told she had a chest cold.
In September, the 34-year-old was hospitalized for six days and given a diagnosis of congenital heart failure, a condition that primarily affects people ages 50 and up.
Hennig realized that being preoccupied with work, family, and worry over COVID-19, she'd overlooked her own physical wellness and pushed her symptoms aside as nothing serious.
Now, Hennig is working to improve her health, and cautions other working moms to check in with themselves more often to avoid making the same mistake.
Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.
In the beginning of 2020, I was a busy 34-year-old entrepreneur and working mom, living with my husband and son in Calgary, Canada. I'd spent the last five years growing a consulting side gig into a thriving full time business, working with practitioners in the health and wellness industries on their branding and marketing.
I had a lot to be proud of. In my first year bringing in over six figures in revenue, and I was easily on track to do the same in 2020. I had big plans to scale, build a more effective sales funnel and hire a team to support me.
My goal was to increase revenue through building a signature program for private clients while also expanding my outreach to small business owners through an online teaching and coaching program. I hoped to begin working with hundreds of new clients.
One day in early September, I woke up at 4:30 a.m. with a distinctive gurgle in my chest.
It sounded and felt like the kind of thing you get when you're fighting a bad chest cold.
All summer long I'd been feeling more run down, and more tired than ever before. I'd had cold and flu-like symptoms since July and had gained 12 pounds over the previous two weeks. My legs and feet were constantly puffy and stiff, and I had a noticeable shortness of breath when I'd climb my stairs.
I described the level of fatigue to my husband as almost being "at a cellular level", and no amount of napping or taking it easy seemed to alleviate my exhaustion.
None of these symptoms made sense to me as I was active, eating a healthy diet and had lost 55 pounds over the previous year. During quarantine due to COVID-19, I'd prioritized my health the best I could and thought I was managing well.
Read more: I'm a 3-time CMO and 5-time ironman triathlete, but having a child is the hardest thing I've ever done
I was doing my best to navigate the realities of the pandemic and what it meant for my business, along with the challenge of my husband and I homeschooling our 6-year-old.
My busy daily routine began impacting my business in big ways. I no longer had the time to devote to client work and was struggling with deadlines that under normal circumstances had never been a problem. I also had no idea where I was going to find the time to teach my son.
In talking to peers and clients, it seemed like everyone was suffering from the same low level anxiety and exhaustion that I had. It wasn't as if I was alone and unique in the physical and mental toll of juggling all the balls, so I pushed my health to the side.
My time was being poured into creating the business of my dreams, but I didn't yet realize my lack of work-life balance was unsustainable.
Fast forward to that morning in September, and I knew that I needed to get help. I'd already been tested for COVID-19 and the results were negative, despite my symptoms matching those widely associated with the virus. I'd even been to the emergency department 10 days earlier complaining of the same issues, along with coughing up small amounts of blood, but was sent home and told that I had a chest cold.
In the emergency department, as I watched my blood pressure rise to deadly levels and my ability to breathe become less and less, I was given my diagnosis.
The doctor told me I had pulmonary edema, a condition where your lungs fill with fluid, and that I was in congestive heart failure.
There I was. A 34-year-old woman, sitting alone in the emergency department because COVID-19 visiting restrictions wouldn't allow my husband to be with me, being told that right now, right in this moment, my heart was failing and I was dying.
What followed next was a whirlwind of emergency treatment to open my blood vessels, slow my heart and get oxygen into my body. An IV flow of heparin, a blood thinner, and nitroglycerin (a medication that helps relax blood vessels and allow blood to flow more easily to the heart) stabilized me before I was moved to the cardiac intensive care unit.
I was hospitalized for six days, where I learned that my heart was pumping at less than half the volume that it should. Further diagnostics showed that the primary cause was high blood pressure that had been uncontrolled for too long.
As I came to terms with my diagnosis, I immediately turned to Google to find out more about what I was up against, and I was stunned to see that the symptoms of heart failure mimic many of those of COVID-19 including shortness of breath and difficulty breathing, fatigue and weakness, and persistent cough and chest pain. I went on to learn that congestive heart failure also can cause rapid weight gain from fluid retention, coughing up blood, and swelling in your legs, ankles, and feet.
Read more: Working moms are disproportionately affected by the pandemic. Here are 3 ways leaders can foster a supportive culture for working parents, according to a LinkedIn VP
I'd had symptoms of heart failure through the summer, but I was too busy with my business and worrying about COVID-19 to think of anything else.
After a round of tests including an Echocardiogram and a cardiac MRI I was diagnosed with cardiomyopathy, which is a weakening or thickening of the heart muscle to the point where it can't pump blood properly.
When it's not being treated through medication, stress management, nutrition, and exercise, it can progress to advanced heart failure.
According to the Centres for Disease Control (CDC), cardiomyopathy often goes undiagnosed, but as many as 1 in 500 adults in the United States may be living with the condition. When it's not being treated through medication, stress management, nutrition, and exercise, it can progress to advanced heart failure.
I knew that I had to completely reevaluate all aspects of my life if I was going to move forward.
Hennig on the day before hospital admission and six days later after being discharged. In two weeks after being hospitalized, she lost 27 pounds of water and fluid build-up.
The stress of business ownership, motherhood, and COVID-19 had pushed me to the verge of utter collapse. I had many of the risk factors for cardiomyopathy but had no idea that this disease could affect someone my age with such deadly consequences.
Since my diagnosis, I've made changes to better balance my work and family obligations and be more in tune with what my body is trying to tell me. To other busy working parents during this time, I encourage you to check in with your own physical and mental health just as you do with your loved ones, so you don't miss a life-threatening diagnosis like I almost did.
Shannon Hennig is a freelance writer and health and wellness marketing professional. She is the president of OpenInk Solutions, of company that helps health and wellness professionals to build their personal brands and become thought thought leaders in industries. Follow her on Twitter.