Home Economy The Economist: The long-term outlook for the US economy

The Economist: The long-term outlook for the US economy


The Perryman Group’s most recent long-term forecast for the US economy calls for notable expansion. Things have improved significantly since the worst of the pandemic, but previous activity levels have not yet been reached. The upward trend should continue (though business cycles are inevitable).

Over the next few years, lingering effects of the pandemic and efforts to slow its spread will impact progress. For example, labor shortages are currently being exacerbated by COVID-related issues including fear of catching the virus, reluctance to comply with vaccine mandates, or related problems such as a lack of available childcare. While some positions will be filled as COVID-19 effects diminish, long-term demographic trends are also a factor. The US population is aging, and the retirement of the baby boom generation will leave a significant gap. Moreover, low birthrates will further reduce the pool of available workers over time. A variety of responses…

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